How Trump’s Tariff War Could Devastate India’s Economy

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What is a tariff that’s being talked about so much these days? Ever since Trump announced a 25% tariff on India, which has now increased to 50%, trade tensions have risen. the buzz around the word “tariff” has grown immensely. So let’s talk in the simplest language about what a tariff is and how it will affect India.

A tariff, simply put, means tax. It can also be called an arbitrary or forcibly imposed tax. This tax is mostly applied in trade between countries to gain more profit. For example, India buys mobile phones from China, and if India imposes a 10% tariff on them, then phones that cost ₹10,000 will now cost ₹11,000. The profit will obviously go to the Indian government, but the burden of this tax will fall on Indians, not the Chinese.

Now you must be wondering — if India imposes tariffs, Indians bear the burden. So if the U.S. imposes a tariff, won’t Americans bear it too? Then how does it affect us Indians? You’re right to ask. But let’s try to understand how it will hurt Indians in a different way.

Let’s say a buyer in America purchases a shirt from India for ₹100. But if the Trump administration imposes a 50% tariff on Indian clothing, then that same shirt will now cost the American buyer ₹150. Now instead of buying that expensive shirt from India, the American buyer will choose to buy from countries where Trump’s government has imposed a lower tariff.
 For example, if the tariff on India is 50% and on another country it’s just 18%, then the buyer will prefer to buy the ₹100 shirt from that other country, which will cost them ₹118 instead of ₹150.

PM Narendra Modi had once called Trump his close friend. Modi even campaigned for Trump during the U.S. elections. He went to America and shouted, “Abki Baar Trump Sarkar.” But Trump, on the other hand, is treating India like an enemy. Not only did he announce a 50% tariff on India, but he also declared penalties for India buying oil from Russia.

The Modi government should have strongly opposed this and said that India is a sovereign nation, and no outsider can dictate who we buy from. Trump has no right to interfere in India’s policy. But the Modi government remained completely silent and gave no response.

India is the fourth-largest economy in the world. Yet Trump is calling it a “Dead economy.” He even said that one day India would be buying oil from Pakistan. Trump talked about penalizing India for buying oil from Russia and banning six Indian companies for buying gas from Iran.

Meanwhile, Pakistan just signed a major deal with Russia in July 2025 for its steel mills — but Trump didn’t even mention penalizing Pakistan. Not only that, compared to India, Trump imposed lower tariffs on Pakistan. On one hand, he calls India his friend, but on the other, he behaves like an enemy.
 He had lunch with India’s biggest enemy, Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, at the White House.

This is the same Donald Trump for whom people in India performed havans and rituals. He was worshipped by Hindutvavadis in India only because he openly expressed hatred toward Muslims.

Today, those very people are either ashamed of their actions — or maybe they’ve sold their shame too. But what’s clear is this: not a single Hindutvavadi is speaking out against Donald Trump.

The imposition of a 50% U.S. tariff on India is going to severely affect four of India’s biggest industries — industries that could rightly be called the four pillars of India’s economy.

1. IT Exports:

India’s IT industry has a total annual revenue of $245 billion, with a global market share of about 55%.

Out of this, $194 billion comes from exports, and 80% of that is from the U.S.

Now, with tariffs being imposed, the biggest blow will fall on India’s IT sector. Thousands of people will lose their jobs, and new job openings will drop significantly.

Anyway, AI has already had a major impact on IT sector jobs.
Forget small universities and colleges — even IIT graduates are increasingly joining the ranks of the unemployed.

2. Textile Industry:

India is the sixth-largest textile exporter in the world.

Trump’s administration may impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on Indian apparels.

As a result, India’s cost advantage will shrink. Sourcing and buying from India will stop, and nearly 2 million jobs will be at risk.

3. Pharma Industry:

So far, India’s pharmaceutical exports to the U.S. have not been taxed.

But Trump has now threatened to impose heavy tariffs on them.

All pharmaceutical products exported from India to the U.S. will face port duties.

India supplies about 40% of the U.S.’s generic drugs, and Trump’s policies are going to cause massive losses to this sector as well.

4. Automobile Industry:

India ranks fourth in the world in automobile manufacturing.

Though India’s automobile trade with the U.S. is limited, it’s still worth $15 million.

Now, with a 50% tariff, this trade too will take a hit. Demand for Indian-made vehicles will fall, exports will decline, factories will shut down, and lakhs of people will lose their jobs.

Unemployment is already a massive issue in India. The number of jobless youth is rising every day. Modi’s government has completely failed to provide employment. And now, due to American tariffs, unemployment in India is set to rise even further.

Not just the tariff policy — Trump’s immigration policy is also going to hurt Indians deeply.

Currently, deportation looms large over many Indians in the U.S., and nearly 1,700 Indians have already been publicly deported this year. About 725,000 Indians are living in the U.S. without proper legal documentation. One million people are waiting for their green cards — with high chances of cancellation. Lakhs of Indians who applied for the H1B visa are now highly unlikely to get approved.

On top of that, job losses in India’s IT, textile, pharma, and automobile sectors will only worsen the already existing army of unemployed youth. The disastrous consequences and impacts are ready to drown the Indian economy.

Actually, the deal the U.S. wants to sign with India includes access to India’s agriculture and dairy sectors. If this deal goes through, it will badly hurt Indian farmers, agriculture, and the dairy industry. That’s where the matter is stuck.

The U.S. wants to sell its wheat, corn, and lab-made synthetic milk in India.
 But India is unwilling.

Talks are still ongoing between the two countries. Trump is using various tariff threats to pressure the Indian administration into submission.

In both situations, India stands to lose.

Now the real question is: What will the Modi government do?


Written by Imran Ahmed


🔗 References & Sources

To maintain the integrity and accuracy of this article, here are the authentic sources that support the facts, data, and developments mentioned:

  1. Politico – Trump signs executive order to increase tariffs on India to 50%, citing oil deals with Russia.
    🔗 Read Full Report
  2. The Economic Times – Trump slaps additional 25% tariff on Indian goods; trade relations worsen.
    🔗 Read Article
  3. Reuters – Trump’s move to double tariffs on India raises global trade concerns.
    🔗 Read Coverage
  4. The Guardian – White House ramps up pressure on India over trade and oil policy.
    🔗 Read Analysis
  5. Financial Times – India’s Russian oil trade fuels new wave of US economic retaliation.
    🔗 Read Report
  6. AP News – Trump administration finalizes 50% tariff on Indian imports, adds port duties.
    🔗 Full Story
  7. NDTV – Live updates on Trump’s tariff bomb on India: Major blow to key industries.
    🔗 Live Blog
  8. Navbharat Times (Hindi) – ट्रम्प ने भारत पर 50 प्रतिशत टैरिफ लगाया, वस्त्र और औषधि क्षेत्र पर असर।
    🔗 हिंदी में पढ़ें
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